President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Cuba with a sweeping energy blockade aimed at weakening the island’s communist government, which analysts say is already struggling to maintain stability. The policy targets fuel supplies reaching the country, worsening long-standing economic problems and deepening shortages of food, medicine, and basic services for Cuba’s roughly 10 million residents.
Experts warn the humanitarian impact is growing. Sebastián Arcos of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University said multiple health crises are spreading while government repression is increasing as leaders feel increasingly cornered. Despite the pressure, he noted that Cuba’s leadership has historically survived severe crises, though he questioned whether it could endure the current situation.
Trump has suggested the United States might ultimately pursue a “friendly takeover” scenario in Cuba, similar to discussions surrounding political change in Venezuela. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading the administration’s strategy and reportedly held quiet talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson and security chief of longtime Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Rodriguez Castro is believed to oversee the military-linked conglomerate GAESA, which controls major sectors of Cuba’s economy.Rubio has indicated that Washington is not insisting on immediate regime change but expects significant reforms over time. The developments come as the administration is also managing escalating tensions abroad, including U.S. coordination with Benjamin Netanyahu during military operations involving Iran.
